Analysis of supply and demand trends for grain, bran and soybean oil in Brazil and in the main global markets

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.21527/2237-6453.2020.51.93-112

Keywords:

Trend analysis. Exports. Soybean Complex.

Abstract

What are the trends and possible supply and demand scenarios for soybeans and their derivatives in the coming years? The importance of the answer to this questioning lies in the fact that the commodity in question is the main item on the Brazilian export agenda and contributes economically to all regions of Brazil. The research presents analyze of trends in production, export, consumption and imports of grain, soybean meal and soybean oil in Brazil and its main global players. Trends and growth rates were identified and measured through the econometric model of trends and growth rates. Data were obtained from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA, 2018) and the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industries Association (ABIOVE, 2019). Among the main results, the growth of supply, on the side of Brazil, the United States, Argentina and Paraguay, and the demand, mainly Asian, American and European, stand out. Therefore, the trend is to increase the production of the main Brazilian competitors and increase the demand of the main consumers, notably China, India, Russia, Algeria and other emerging economies. In view of this, it is strategic for the Brazilian soybean producer to strengthen trade relations with China, Russia and other complementary economies to the Brazilian economy. It was also observed that the Brazilian domestic market should be recognized, since it accounts for about 35% of soybeans, 50% of soybean meal and 84% of soybean oil.

Author Biographies

Angélica Cristina Rhoden, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM), Campus Palmeira das Missões

Mestre em Agronegócios pelo Programa de Pós-Graduação em Agronegócios (PPGAGR) – Mestrado Acadêmico da Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM). Doutoranda em Extensão Rural e Desenvolvimento – PPGExR, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM). Santa Maria, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. 

Nilson Luiz Costa, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM), Campus Palmeira das Missões

Doutor em Ciências Agrárias e graduado em Ciências Econômicas. É pesquisador do Núcleo de Pesquisas em Economia do Agronegócio (NPEA-UFSM) e Coordenador do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Agronegócios (PPGAGR) – Mestrado Acadêmico da Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) campus Palmeira das Missões, Rio Grande do Sul Brasil

Antônio Cordeiro de Santana, Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia (UFRA)

Doutor em Economia Aplicada e Graduado em Agronomia. É pesquisador do Núcleo de Pesquisas em Economia do Agronegócio (NPEA-UFSM) e docente da Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia (UFRA). Atua no Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Sustentável do Trópico Úmido da Universidade Federal do Pará (UFPA). Pará, Brasil.

Gabriel Nunes de Oliveira, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM), Campus Palmeira das Missões

Doutor em Extensão Rural e Graduado em Administração. É pesquisador do Núcleo de Pesquisas em Economia do Agronegócio (NPEA-UFSM) o docente do Curso de Graduação em Ciências Econômicas da Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM) campus Palmeira das Missões, Rio Grande do Sul , Brasil.

Maiara Thais Tolfo Gabbi, Serviço Nacional de Aprendizagem Comercial (Senac/RS)

Mestre em Agronegócios pela Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM). Professora do Serviço Nacional de Aprendizagem Comercial (Senac/RS)

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Published

2020-04-24

How to Cite

Rhoden, A. C., Costa, N. L., Santana, A. C. de, Oliveira, G. N. de, & Gabbi, M. T. T. (2020). Analysis of supply and demand trends for grain, bran and soybean oil in Brazil and in the main global markets. Desenvolvimento Em Questão, 18(51), 93–112. https://doi.org/10.21527/2237-6453.2020.51.93-112

Issue

Vol. 18 No. 51 (2020): (abr.-jun.)

Section

Artigos

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